Category Archives: Economic Commentary

Bullish? Or Bearish? It’s a Tough Call

We’ve been talking in my office about getting a bit more defensive with our investment portfolios. The S&P 500 is up over 9% since January 1st and the year is half over. If you check my post from a few months back, fund manager Curtis Teberg offered a projection of the Dow Jones reaching 16,000 by year end. His reasoning? The 15-month period preceding a presidential election tends to boast big moves in the market. His testing goes back as far as 1926 and hold up fairly well. Yesterday the market closed up over 280 points, shining light on the magical 14,000 level. Are we going to get there by year end? How about within a week? (Note: Past Performance is not a prediction of future results).

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Market Historian predicts Dow Rally to 16,000

An article in Registered Rep magazine in November tells the market forecast of Curtis Teberg, a portfolio manager based out of Minnesota. Teberg puts the Dow at 16,000 by December 31st, 2007, a 33% increase over its value on October 1st. Wow! I’d better start loading up on blue chip stocks. Apparently I’ve already missed out on a 6.2% move in the Dow since October 1st! Or, is this an unfounded and spontaneous move? Check out the basis for this forecast and see how it sits with you.

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Retirement Planning & Social Security from a Generation X Perspective

I’m in my mid 20’s, but I spend much of my time with people in their 50’s and 60’s. These clients are nearing retirement–the point in life where one would like to either cease working, or dedicate substantially less time to work-related activities. The challenge is sustaining an income stream which is sufficient to lead the same lifestyle established during prime working years. I have many answers as to how workers nearing retirement can supplement their savings or find insurance-related products which can mitigate the risk of outliving one’s assets. What I’d like to focus more on is why 90% of the questions I get related to retirement and creating long-term income streams stem from people in their 50’s and 60’s- just the demographic which should be well prepared for these nearing issues. The people who should really start paying attention to their longer-term financial well being are those in their 40′s, 30′s and younger–those who face plenty of issues of their own.

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