The Debt End Game: Market Commentary from Advanced Equities Asset Management

Equity markets around the world have been under heavy pressure this month from a widening European sovereign debt crisis. The following commentary addresses short-term opportunities and long-term issues facing investors in light of this latest European sovereign debt crisis. There is no denying that several key charts are flashing technical caution and send an important message about global economic activity. As of this writing the important Shanghai Composite is down 34% from its August peak while the Reuters/Jefferies CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Index has fallen 16% since January. Both are near key 50% retracement levels, which if violated, could harken moves back to the lows seen during the height of the most recent recession. The charts for several other markets are also flirting with major topping formations. That being said, corporate profits in the United States have been very strong, as the impending austerity slowdown in the European economy and stronger dollar have yet to meaningfully impact American bottom lines while companies are still reaping the benefits of prior cost-cutting measures. United States exports to Europe are still three times larger than to emerging nations, so one could argue that stocks are simply readjusting to the revised prospects for the world’s real economy. Despite the haircut for European weakness, the U.S. recovery remains intact as does the emerging market growth story.

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