Are Market Predictions a Waste of Time?

There was a spread in the Wall Street Journal at the end of 2007 in which a variety of seasoned financial experts were asked where the markets were headed in 2008. The predictions were mostly bullish – Dow 14,000 – Dow 15,000 – Dow 16,000 – true dreamers. A couple of people more accurately predicted flat markets in the face of staggering oil prices and a weak housing market. But nobody–none of the experts–expected a 10% decline in the first quarter alongside a massive credit crisis. I’ve listened to hundreds of bulls and bears make predictions about market direction over the past five years and I keep returning to the same conclusion: these people have no clue where the market is headed.

Continue reading